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Forced migration and the welfare state : a new perspective on the Progressive’s Dilemma

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Schäuble, Jakob ; Mehl, Martin ; Althammer, Jörg:
Forced migration and the welfare state : a new perspective on the Progressive’s Dilemma.
In: European journal of political economy. 95 (Dezember 2026): 102882.
ISSN 0176-2680 ; 1873-5703

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Volltext Link zum Volltext (externe URL):
http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102882

Kurzfassung/Abstract

The relationship between ethnic heterogeneity and redistributive preferences remains a contested issue at both the theoretical and empirical levels. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the causal effect of immigration from culturally distant origin countries on the native population’s preferences for redistribution, employing a difference-in-differences identification strategy. We exploit the European refugee crisis of 2015–2016 as a natural experiment, leveraging cross-regional variation in asylum seeker inflows to identify whether exposure to large-scale forced migration attenuated native support for redistributive policies. Under the Progressive’s Dilemma hypothesis, one would expect a significant erosion of redistributive preferences in regions experiencing pronounced migration inflows. Our estimates, however, provide no support for this prediction: the estimated coefficients are either statistically indistinguishable from zero or marginally positive. These findings are robust across a range of alternative specifications. Taken together, our results challenge the Progressive’s Dilemma hypothesis and suggest that ethnic homogeneity does not constitute a necessary precondition for the sustainability of European-style welfare state arrangements.

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Publikationsform:Artikel
Schlagwörter:Redistribution preferences; Ethnic heterogeneity; European asylum crisis; Welfare state chauvinism; Solidarity
Themenfelder:Flucht und Migration
Sprache des Eintrags:Englisch
Institutionen der Universität:Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät > Ethik > Wirtschaftsethik und Sozialpolitik
DOI / URN / ID:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102882
Open Access: Freie Zugänglichkeit des Volltexts?:Ja
Peer-Review-Journal:Ja
Verlag:Elsevier
Die Zeitschrift ist nachgewiesen in:
Titel an der KU entstanden:Ja
KU.edoc-ID:37027
Eingestellt am: 06. Aug 2026 08:07
Letzte Änderung: 06. Aug 2026 08:07
URL zu dieser Anzeige: https://edoc.ku.de/id/eprint/37027/
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