Statistical disposition modelling of mass movements

Kurzfassung/Abstract

Disposition models are used to delineate potential starting zones for various geomorphic processes that may also act as natural hazards (snow avalanches, debris flows, earth flows, landslides). Various approaches of statistical disposition models have in common that they require mapped starting zones and a set of categorised geofactors considered relevant for process initiation. We have implemented the certainty factor approach, representing one of the favourability functions, that has previously been used for spatial models of landslide susceptibility and mineral resources. The SAGA modules presented here are used to develop a spatial disposition model, to apply existing models to different areas and to validate model results using subsets of input data.
After a description of the calculation of certainty factors, a case study is presented with respect to data requirements, model results and validation, followed by a detailed discussion of model assumptions, problematic issues and future work.