A Decision Support System Including Feedback to Sensitize for Certainty Interval Size

Kurzfassung/Abstract

In decision-making overconfidence and estimation biases can lead to sub-optimal outcomes and accuracy loss. A debiasing strategy presented in this work is to use feedback based on the error pattern of own previous absolute and 90% certainty (confidence) interval estimates. This is comprised in a decision support system (DSS) and applied in an experiment, where results indicate support for the key assumption that subjects are able to selectively reduce their overconfidence and their estimation bias, if present, with the help of the provided feedback.